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Baseball ‘Half-time’ Report
By John Ryan
July 11, 2011

At the midway points of the 2011 season teams with solid and top ranked pitching staffs are posting baseball’s best records. Nowhere is it more evident than in the National League East where the Philadelphia Phillies boast the best record in baseball at 57-34 and the Braves, who are in second place in the NL East 3 1/2 games behind the Phillies sporting the fourth best record in baseball with a 54-38 record. 

The Phillies have accomplished this best record in baseball with an anemic offense that ranks 14th with 384 runs scored, 20th with a .250 team batting average, 10th with a .323 on-base-percentage, and 20th with a .283 slugging percentage. The Braves rank 18th with 365 runs scored, 26th with a .237 team batting average 27th with a .305 on-base-percentage, and 19th with a .385 slugging percentage. 

The biggest difference between the two teams is that the Philadelphia offense has improved significantly over the past two weeks while the Braves remain completely dependent on quality starts and excellent bullpen relief to win games. I strongly believe that the Braves will fade in the second half and will end up being in an extremely close race for the Wild Card playoff spot. 

Batting Average On Balls In Plays

This is a stat that has a significant weighting in the simulator algorithm. As expected the Phillies and Braves rank near the bottom  ranking 26th with a .280 BABIP and 28th with a .277 BABIP respectively. However, the Phillies have begun an upward and sustainable trend reflecting that the lineup is making solid contact with the baseball more often. Over the last three games against a strong Braves pitching staff the Phillies attained a .347 BABIP. By comparison, the Braves worsened in the three game series against the Phillies with an anemic .187 BABIP. 

Boston has the second best record in baseball behind Philadelphia. As expected, Boston ranks second best with a .312 BABIP and have attained a .375 BABIP over the past three games. These last three games were against the collapsing Baltimore Orioles so it is not a true reflection of an upward trend for Boston. Still, Boston is the best offensive team in baseball and they are augmented by a strong pitching staff. Offensively, the Red Sox rank best in the four major categories with a 482 runs scored, .278 team batting average, .354 on-base-percentage, and .456 slugging percentage. 

The Yankees were solid team and one that could contend for the American league Title. That has all changed with Alex Rodriguez electing knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus tendon and will miss four to six weeks. His offensive production will be greatly missed and the Yankees now find themselves looking at winning the Wild Card race. 

The Braves have lost Chipper Jones to the exact same injury and that already anemic offense will be worse in his absence making it nearly impossible to stay in step with the Phillies. 

The Phillies have the best record in baseball, but may be one of the most under valued teams based on the betting lines. The lines are not reflecting the true offensive potential of the lineup, which is far deeper than the public realizes. John Mayberry and Dominik Brown are beginning to gain confidence and are contributing in nearly every game. These two have made the bottom half of the lineup far stronger and combined with a red hot Raul Ibanez gives not rest to any starting pitcher in the league. 

The Phillies will be able to rest over the all star break and I strongly believe you may want to bet them in the first 10 games after the break. Their first six games will be on the road with the firth three of them at the Mets and the next three at the Cubs. Since these games are the road and that the Mets have played above average baseball the lines will be cheap to bet Phillies. They return home for a four game set against the Padres, who lost five straight games entering the break and are in last place in the NL West 12 games behind the Giants.